whatbrentsay

The recent wave of Apple Car rumors surprised me. Before them, I was firmly planted on the skeptical side of the "will Apple build a car?" fence. It really looked like a "no" in early 2019 when Apple laid off a couple of hundred employees who had been working on the project. News was thin for the remainder of that year and through almost all of 2020, as well. Last December, however, a pair of reports from Bloomberg and Reuters hit, stoking the flames once again.

For the record, I still have trouble imagining a car rolling off a production line with an Apple logo on its hood. However, after Hyundai spoke out of turn this month—first stating they were in talks with Apple, then revising their statement to be more vague—it feels about time I accept that this is happening. It's happening, yes, but I doubt soon.

At the moment, I don't take any rumor claiming a consumer ready car will be in production before 2025 seriously. Is that technically possible for Apple to do? Probably. It took Tesla four years after their first funding round to start production of the Roadster. Apple wouldn't lose time to raising money or be affected by cost in their decision making.

While it has been unclear whether Apple would produce an entire vehicle, it has been obvious that they are interested in vehicle-related software. CarPlay has received continued improvements in a slow, quiet march that resembles ARKit. Apple's integration of car keys with BMW vehicles is another example. There hasn't been anything concrete yet but some of the more steady rumors have been focused on automated driving.

One reason pre-2025 is unlikely is because of what it implies about the state of automated driving technology. I don't expect Apple is building a car to be driven by people. Of course people will be able to drive it (at first) but it makes the most sense that they're making significant design decisions with the assumption the vehicle will be primarily driven by software. That may allow them to more easily create something that stands out from their competitors' offerings. If you assume this is a mostly autonomous car, then a later release is necessary; automated driving software is still in its early days. While Tesla is fine beta testing its software in public (and managing the negative PR), Apple is not that kind of company. Waiting allows automated driving software—theirs and everyone else's—to mature. Automated driving systems will be much more common and competent in the second half of this decade.

A vehicle that mostly drives itself opens up in-car opportunities that Apple has preexisting advantages in. If you're not driving the car, then the car becomes a new place where you have down time. Apple produces many things that could help entertain passengers or allow them to use the time productively: a large, varied suite of first party software and apps, high quality displays, inter-device integration with iCloud and Handoff, 3D audio, ARKit, FaceTime, iMessage, Apple Music, and more. Their increased focus on services will only make this side of the offering better.

I've mentioned ARKit a few times but I think it's the last contributor to a later release. Heads up displays have become much more common in vehicles because it puts information where the driver should be looking. Piloting a heavy machine at high speed is dangerous—despite being commonplace in modern life—and taking one's eyes off the road while doing so is inherently risky. Again, while I don't expect Apple's vehicles to be primarily driven by people, a full windshield AR UI would allow the car to passively communicate a huge amount of driving-related information to the person sitting behind the wheel and to other passengers in the car, regardless of how the vehicle is driven. It would be useful as a driver and offer passengers a lot of interesting ride-related information—not just about the trip but also about what's interesting around the vehicle.

If an AR-focused user experience is likely, that means Apple needs an entirely new AR operating system to power this thing. Along with a suite of easy to use and useful software. It seems rather fortuitous that they're also expected to be launching a set of AR glasses sooner than a car. Apple will have several years to work out AR-related software and hardware before the time comes to scale it up to something that works in a vehicle. It's not hard to imagine a souped up version of CarPlay for a pair of AR glasses that serves as a way for Apple to learn in public.

Features that sound to me like the core of a compelling Apple Car just won't be mature soon enough to warrant an eager launch projection. Apple waits until each a product's key pieces meet the quality bar for their vision before bringing it to market. There are enough obvious ones that aren't ready yet and there must be many more Apple has identified over the years. I'll admit it feels inevitable they enter the automobile market but I'm not expecting it any time soon.