8/12
The lead up to next gen console launch is feeling a bit like last gen's to me. Microsoft dropped the ball differently back then but I can't ignore how similarly the Series X feels at this point in its road to launch as the Xbox One did in 2013.
Back then, I had assumed I was buying the next Xbox. I enjoyed my original Xbox, and the three Xbox 360s I owned—all RRODs—got me through my college years. Halo, Forza, Crackdown, Fable, Gears of War—they were the franchises that mattered to me. At least until Microsoft tried to excite me with hardware that wasn't backwards compatible and required an always on camera be connected to that always online device. I knew that's not what I wanted for a console and it turned out many gamers felt the same way. The media was unkind following the reveal but they were absolutely right.
Sony swooped in shortly after and used many of the Xbox One's faults as PlayStation 4 selling points. Xbox too expensive for ya? Great, we're $100 cheaper. Want backwards compatibility? Sure, we sort of kind of have you covered. Can't be connected to the internet at all times? That's okay, our new console doesn't need to be as well. The slow start set the Xbox One on a lower trajectory that never really picked up through the console generation.
With that embarrassing lesson behind, I assumed Microsoft would do everything in its power to offer a console and strategy that was obviously compelling to gamers—similar to what Sony did at their 2013 reveal. Microsoft got off to a good start, trickling info to the media before revealing the console itself. They followed that with hardware hands on for a selection of known and reputable outlets. All while speaking openly about the tech and what the console should be able to do. It was all very exciting and during a time where Sony was unusually quiet.
That was peak pre-launch Xbox Series X hype. The first indication that the winds were changing came a few months later when Microsoft had its first reveal of Series X titles. Everything looked great on screen, but there was little to no gameplay actually presented. Whether or not Microsoft intended it to be this way, this livestream was hyped as THE reveal for next gen games in general. Sony's silence gave Microsoft room to control the next gen narrative. What gamers walked away with were glorified trailers that couldn't be taken as representative of what actual games will be like. Gamers have been burned by gorgeous early preview footage so many times over the last generation that flame retardant suits pop out of their screens when they click on a video that has the words "reveal" and "trailer" in its title. Microsoft should have known better.
So what happened next? In a tactical repeat of 7 years ago, Sony used Microsoft's shortcomings to bolster their product. Sony held a game reveal livestream that was tightly edited, focused, and contained a lot of gameplay. It was exactly what gamers wanted and exactly what they expected from Microsoft's earlier event.
It was way too soon to count Microsoft out, though. They dropped the ball, sure, but they still had plenty to reveal. Hell, we hadn't even seen the new Halo yet which was starting to look like a much needed happy ending for the Series X story—the underdog console goes back to its roots and overdelivers with a new installment of its waning marquee franchise, breathing life back into both console and game. It was supposed to be a rebirth for Halo and a reminder that the Xbox has strong exclusives too.
The storyline was perfect and the payoff was T-ed up when Microsoft announced another Xbox Series X-focused stream. Then we tuned in and saw the Halo footage. To say it was disappointing underscores how obviously problematic the footage was from a marketing standpoint. Think about how many managers and executives with oversight watched it and then gave their rubber stamp long before the millions of viewers tuned in to see it. The footage was okayed with incredibly jerky and mechanical flight paths for NPC ships, flat lighting and textures of questionable quality, and severe pop in visible throughout the environment. The kicker? It wasn't even running on actual Series X hardware.
Naturally, media reaction was strong. The memes have truly been a blast. Throughout, I held onto a glimmer of hope for Microsoft because of all the early good will and momentum they were building. Then I heard what I thought was the final nail loudly driven into the coffin: Halo Infinite would no longer launch with the Series X. At least the Series X will have some other exclusives to prop it up during its launch window until Halo drops in to save the day, right? Well, no; Microsoft has been vocal about not having console exclusives for the Series X for at least the first year of its life. For Microsoft they're pushing an ecosystem, not a console.
Sony, once again, has aligned itself to do what Microsoft isn't (or won't?). Sony has leaned as hard into the console jump as possible, ensuring there will be exclusive titles and hardware that take full advantage of the new technologies only enabled by PlayStation 5. They're giving gamers what they know; a clean baton passing, like all previous generations. Whether you buy the marketing is up to you, but this does bring me to the actual final nail for Series X's premature coffin.
According to the rumor mill, Sony has eked out some kind of console exclusivity (probably limited) for an unknown amount of third party titles. Which titles these are is not public info yet but they are franchises that have been multi-platform in the past. This is Sony's last trump card and it's got to be played soon; we're nearly halfway through August. What will the Series X value prop look like after that news?
Console generations are long and it's unfair to call anyone a winner before the racers are even out of the gate. I just can't ignore how weak the Xbox's position looks just months before release, seven years after Microsoft dropped the ball leading up to its last release. It's weirdly reminiscent in all the worst ways. Are we looking at a trend here? Some kind of smell or indicator that there may be trouble in Xbox-land? Is Microsoft just really bad at launching consoles? I don't know the answer to any of those questions but what Microsoft is putting out into the world around the Series X does not give me confidence at the moment.