6/10
I'm fascinated with current Pixel 4a and Pixel 5 news; the 4a is very delayed and the 5 is not likely to have the same kind of high-end hardware as its competitors. They're two, seemingly unrelated stories but I keep fantasizing that Google will use its unexpected Pixel 4a delay to double down on a shift in strategy the 5 appears to be signaling.
Google's 2020 flagship phone is expected to be powered by mid-range hardware—more specifically, the Snapdragon 768g processor. This would mark the first time a flagship Pixel phone didn't ship with a top-of-the-line Snapdragon 800-series chip. It doesn't sound like much but that's unusual.
Pixels already suffer from poor timing by releasing in the Fall. They're always one of the last important Android phones to ship while the rest generally come out earlier, in Q1 or Q2. By the time Pixel devices get into consumers' hands, Samsung's next phone with next year's top of the line processor is only a few months away. The gap was four months between last year's Pixel 4 and this year's Samsung Galaxy S20. I assume the disadvantageous timing is twofold: one, to separate Pixel devices from the rest of the Android landscape; and two, to offer customers an immediate alternative to the iPhone.
With such a short gap between the Pixel's release and next year's phones, why choose a lower range chip? It's not a logical choice if your goal is to launch a flagship phone that competes with other flagship phones. I trust that Google is able to make logical decisions so there's got to be a better reason. The best one I could come up with is that Google's changing their phone strategy again.
Recent sales numbers show that last year was the best year for Pixel phones, despite the overall reception of the Pixel 4. Last year was also the first year consumers were offered an "a" series Pixel device. I doubt those facts are unrelated. The 3a provided a strong, Google Nexus-like value prop: pure Android, good looking hardware, and good enough performance. On top of that it kept that magical Google Camera. Conversely, the Pixel 4 brought Motion Sense with it later that year—a unique gimmick that felt like a familiar tactic to stand out in an extremely crowded market. Customers who purchased a Pixel 4 had to pay for a hardware feature of questionable value that was also widely panned for not working as well as it was pitched to.
Okay, so here's the fantasy. Maybe the Pixel 5 isn't a sequel to the Pixel 4. What if it's a high end Pixel 4a? Start with the 4a's baseline and simply compromise less while avoiding any non-essential hardware features. Modest specs should open the door for a more affordable price tag and more competitive base configuration. A good mid-range phone can deliver most of what a flagship can by making a notable sacrifice (or two). Could a lower spec processor and the omission of Motion Sense be the Pixel 5's sacrifices? Smart choices, if so.
So what about the Pixel 4a? What if Google holds the Pixel 4a for the Pixel 5 release? What better way to introduce a reimagined Pixel flagship than to double down on a focused, no gimmick, price friendlier approach to hardware? "Here's the Pixel 4a and Pixel 5; pure Android, best in class cameras, and your choice of performance." The icing on the cake in this scenario would be a $699 price for the Pixel 5. It's still high enough to preserve a clear gap between it and the 4a while simultaneously offering a strong discount compared to traditional flagship devices.
Returning to reality, I'd bet against the Pixel 4a being held until the 5's release. At the same $799 price of last year's Pixel 4, I imagine the 4a would end up cannibalizing the 5's sales. Regardless, it feels certain we're going to see a Pixel 5 that's more focused on delivering a very good smartphone experience without obsessing over what's under the hood. With Google's ever-improving software and Pixel-specific feature drops, this could be their admission that we've reached peak smartphone and that some performance differences simply don't matter to the average customer.